Multi-Factor and Polymorphism Failure Probability Calculation for Natural Gas Pipelines

Ya Ping Yang; Yong Mei Hao; Zhi Xiang Xing

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.401-403.2170

Paper Titles

The Prediction of the Water Yield which Flood from the Pit and the Trait of the Hydrogeology which Existed in the Mining Area of the Zhujiabaobao Mining in Panzhihua
p.2155

Simulation of Signalized Intersection Model
p.2159

Application of Logistic Model in Container Throughput Prediction
p.2163

Empirical Study of Factors for Implementing Reverse Logistics in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Firms
p.2166

Multi-Factor and Polymorphism Failure Probability Calculation for Natural Gas Pipelines
p.2170

Optimization Research of Logistics Distribution Routing Based on Heuristic Algorithm
p.2175

Predicting Model of Container Throughput of Fujian Province Based on Grey Model
p.2179

The Study of the Regional Logistics Cooperation System Based on the Industrial Cluster
p.2183

The Real Estate Industry and Three Industry Correlation Empirical Analysis, Shan’xi Province
p.2187

HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 401-403Multi-Factor and Polymorphism Failure Probability...

Multi-Factor and Polymorphism Failure Probability Calculation for Natural Gas Pipelines

Abstract:

A Bayesian network quantitative calculation model for urban natural gas pipelines was established by using the unique logic of a Bayesian network in handling complicated risk systems. By using a natural gas pipeline as an example, failure situations such as single factor polymorphism, double factor polymorphism, and multi-factor polymorphism of a pipeline were quantitatively calculated to obtain the probability of top events and the structural importance of basic factors. The proposed method not only reflects clearly the effects of different factors but also predicts the failure state of urban natural gas pipelines comprehensively and accurately. The results of the proposed method can serve as a significant reference for the risk management and fault processing of city natural gas pipelines.

You might also be interested in these eBooks

Frontiers of Manufacturing Science and Measuring Technology III

View Preview

Info:

Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 401-403)

Pages:

2170-2174

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.401-403.2170

Citation:

Cite this paper

Online since:

September 2013

Authors:

Ya Ping Yang, Yong Mei Hao, Zhi Xiang Xing

Keywords:

Failure, Multi-Factor, Natural Gas Pipeline, Polymorphism, Probability Analysis

Export:

RIS, BibTeX

Price:

Permissions CCC:

Request Permissions

Permissions PLS:

Request Permissions

Сopyright:

Citation:

References

[1] Jianhua Li . The research of pipeline quantitative risk assessment method based on fault tree analysis . Lanzhou : Lanzhou Technology University (2008).

Google Scholar

[2] Guo Feng. Urban underground gas pipeline risk assessment research. Changsha: Central South University (2011）.

Google Scholar

[3] Yongmei Hao, Shen Ming , Zhixiang Xing , etc. analysis of city gas pipeline safety failure probability based on Bayesian network . Oil and gas storage and transportation . 31（04） (2012)270 -273.

Google Scholar

[4] Sklavounos S, Rigas F. Estimation of safety distances in the vicinity of fuel gas pipelines. Loss Prevent Process Industries. 19(2006)24-31.

DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2005.05.002

Google Scholar

[5] Ruiyu Cheng. City Gas Network Risk Management System. Shanghai : Tongji University School of Mechanical Engineering (2009).

Google Scholar

[6] W Kent Muhlauer．Pipeline risk management manual. Gulf Publishing Company, New York, 1996, pp.20-40.

Google Scholar

[7] Hideo T，Fan LT，Laif S．Fault-tree analysis by fuzzy probability[J]．IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 1983，32（5）：453-457.

Google Scholar