Study on China's Carbon Emmission Three Factors Simulation in 12^th Five-Year Plan: 2011-2020 in an Economy-Energy-Environment Framework

Abstract:

In an Economy-Energy-Environment framework, we use system dynamics simulation analysis, thermal coal equivalent, by 2000-2010 history data, divide GDP into three industries, energy into coal, petrol, natural gas and electricity subdivision 9 energy, environment per person carbon emissions, build 9 simplified in-tree model and simulation equation. On the goal of per person GDP double index, simulation per person carbon emission in 2011-2020 . subject to the The 12th Five-Year Plan (E₁)- GDP growth 7% and the industry structure of 6%, 45%, 49% and in 2020 10000RMB carbon emission degrade 40%-45% to one in 2015, energy (E₂) the goal of energy consumption total, energy consumption structure and 10000 GDP energy consumption in energy The 12th Five-Year Plan , in the hypothesis of scheme A-secondary industry decrease rate 0.1% per-year and tertiary industry growth rate 0.15% per-year and scheme B-percent of secondary industry adjust to forty five percent and tertiary industry adjust to forty nine percenttwo scheme, get the goal of double GDP per population in 2017, it is positive to increase energy efficiency and decrease to carbon emission for industry adjustment, scheme is better to achieve the 12^th Five-Year goal.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 448-453)
• Pages: 4536-4543
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.448-453.4536
• Online since: October 2013
• Authors: Jing Hua Liu*, Zhan Hong Wang, Re Nan Jia, Yu Jie Deng, Guo Ping Tu
• Keywords: Energy Usage Management, Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, Low Carbon Economy-Energy-Electricity Environment, System Dynamics Simulation

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