Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint in Jilin Province of China Based on Grey Prediction Model

Abstract:

The paper calculates ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita in the Jilin province during 1998 and 2010 by using the ecological footprint theory, and analyzes the dynamic changes of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita, and obtains development prediction model of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita based on grey prediction model. The results indicate the ecological footprint per capita had increased continuously from 1.7841 hm² per capita to 3.2013 hm² per capita between 1998 and 2010. During this period, ecological capacity per capita dropped from 1.3535 hm² per capita to 1.3028 hm² per capita. Ecological deficit had increased from 0.4306 hm² per capita to 1.8985 hm² per capita that showed that the development of Jilin province was in an unsustainable status. The gray prediction model shows the ecological footprint per capita in the Jilin province will increase from 3.4833 hm² per capita to 5.7022 hm² per capita between 2011 and 2020, ecological capacity per capita will drop from 1.2978 hm² per capita to 1.2676 hm² per capita and ecological deficit will increase from 2.1855 hm² per capita to 4.4346 hm² per capita.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volume 472)
• Pages: 899-903
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.472.899
• Online since: January 2014
• Authors: Biao Gao, Qing Tao Xu
• Keywords: Ecological Capacity, Ecological Deficit, Ecological Footprint, Gray Prediction, Sustainable Development

References

[1] REES W E: Environmental Urban. Vol. 4(1992), pp.121-130.

[2] Wackernagel M, W E Rees: Our ecological footprint: Reducing human impact on the earth. (New Society Publishers, USA 1996).

[3] Cynthia Klein-Banaia, Thomas L. Theisb: Ecological Indicators. Vol. 11(2011), pp.857-860.

[4] Detlef P. van Vuuren, Lex F. Bouwman: Ecological Economics. Vol. 52(2005), pp.43-62.

[5] Wachernagel M, Lewan L, Hanson C B: Application in Sweden and subregions. Ambio. Vol. 28(1999), p.604–612.