Risk Mutability Analysis and Pre-Control of Dynamical System

Abstract:

Based on systematical research on catastrophe theory, system dynamics is a general theory to describe dynamical systems with the goal of achieving structural stability and dynamic stability. In this paper, catastrophe model of dynamic system is established and elements of the system are defined as well. Conditions for system structure mutating are also defined via analysis on dynamism, fuzziness and mutability of system structure. In view of the fact that modes and strength of disturbance or damage to system structural stability are two decisive factors for major accident occurrence and consequences, the course of disturbance or damage can be deemed as the process of quantitative evaluation of major accident risks. Hence, by adopting combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and with the help of simulation technology, decision-makers can do researches on engineering, social and economic systems to make scientific and effective pre-control.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volume 533)
• Pages: 360-364
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.533.360
• Online since: February 2014
• Authors: Ji Qi*, Zhong Yi Zheng, Jian Min Li
• Keywords: Catastrophe Model, Dynamic System, Risk Evaluation, Risk Mutability Analysis, Risk Pre-Control, Structural Stability

References

[1] Bilal M Ayyub, Jeffrey E Beach, et al: Naval Engineers Journal Vol. 114 (2002), pp.181-206.

[2] Wu Zhaolin: Marine Traffic Engineering, second ed., Wu Zhaolin, Dalian, (2004) (In Chinese).

[3] Jeong H, Tombor B, Albert R, et al: Nature Vol. 407 (2010), pp.651-654.

[4] Thom. René: Boulder Colorado westview press (1994) pp.25-63.

[5] J. Barkley, Jr. Rosser: Journal of Economic Dynamics&: Control Vol. 31 (2007), pp.3255-3280.

[6] Poston T. Ianstewant: Lord: Pitman (1978).

[7] Chi K M, Cherng G D: Tourism Management Vol. 31 (2010), pp.855-861.

[8] K. Shanti Swarup: Neurocomputing Vol. 71 (2008), pp.983-998.

[9] Zhao Y: Journal of southwest university for nationalities (Natrual science edition) Vol. 34 (2008), pp.1021-1025 (In Chinese).

[10] Guo Sicong: Northeastern university press (2004) (In Chinese).

[11] Grassberger P: New Journal of Physics (2002), pp.1-17.

[12] Carlson J M, Doyle J: Phyc Natl Acad Sci USA Vol. 99 (2002), pp.2538-2545.

[13] Qi Ji, Zheng Zhongyi, Li Jianmin: Navigation of China Vol. 36 (2013), pp.113-115 (In Chinese).

[14] Li Jianmin, Qi Ji, Zheng Zhongyi: Journal of Dalian Maritime University Vol. 39 (2013), pp.85-88 (In Chinese).