Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting in Wind Power Plants of North China Based on Support Vector Regression Analysis

Abstract:

This paper investigates the short-term wind power forecasting and demonstrates accurate modeling, which utilizes two representative heuristic algorithms (i.e. wavelet neural network (WNN) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)), and statistical machine learning techniques (i.e. Support Vector Regression (SVR)). The proposed method generates the performances of different approaches for random time series, characterized with high accuracy and high generalization capability. The employed data is obtained through Sampling equipment in Real Wind Power Plants (Power generation equipment is Dongfang Steam Turbine Co., Ltd. weak wind turbine type--FD77 with German REpower company technology). The main innovation of this paper comes from: (a) problem may encounter in the real application is in consideration such as corrupt, missing value and noisy data. (b) Data lag estimation are provided to investigate the data distribution and obtain the best input variables, respectively. (c) Comparison between MLP neural networks, WNN and SVR with optimized kernel parameters based on Grid-search method are provided to demonstrate the best forecasting approaches. The purpose of this paper is to provide a method with reference value for short-term wind power forecasting.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volume 705)
• Pages: 284-288
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.705.284
• Online since: December 2014
• Authors: Hai Jian Shao, Hai Kun Wei
• Keywords: Neural Network, North China Wind Power Plants, Renewable Energy, Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting, SVR

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