Research on the Ultra-Short-Term Bus Load Forecasting Method Considering Meteorological Mutation

Abstract:

Because small value and rapid changes, bus load is severely affected by meteorological factors. The article focuses on the precipitation, the average pressure, the average wind speed, the average temperature and the average relative humidity, and identifies the meteorological mutations. In the case when there is no mutation, predict the load trends based on the Single Exponential Smoothing method, otherwise, if there exists meteorological mutation, use SVM model to predict the load, as well as in the event of extreme weather conditions, start the emergency warning plan. By the case study of the No.1 main transformer of certain area in Jiangsu Province, the result shows that this method has good prediction results.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 713-715)
• Pages: 1431-1435
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.713-715.1431
• Online since: January 2015
• Authors: Dong Xiao Niu*, Bing Jie Li, Yan Lu, Zhe Chen, Jian Kun Liu
• Keywords: Bus Load Forecasting, Meteorological Mutation, Single Exponential Smoothing Method, SVM

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