Ultra-Short-Term Forecasting Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Wind Power Wind

De Yin Du; Bao Fan Chen

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.713-715.1444

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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 713-715Ultra-Short-Term Forecasting Based on Phase Space...

Ultra-Short-Term Forecasting Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Wind Power Wind

Abstract:

The amount of random variation of wind speed, wind turbine output power are volatile, a lot of wind power will be on the safe and stable operation of power systems and power quality pose serious challenges, so the wind farm wind speed and power generation forecast scheduling and management of wind farms play an important role. According wind with chaotic discuss the use of phase space CC method to reconstruct the chaotic time series, and the phase space of a wind farm 10 units were reconstructed using the weighted first order local prediction model to obtain short-term within 1h wind forecast values obtained using the power curve conversion method of generating power for each unit. By examples show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 713-715)

Pages:

1444-1447

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.713-715.1444

Citation:

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Online since:

January 2015

Authors:

De Yin Du*, Bao Fan Chen

Keywords:

Chaotic Properties, Phase Space Reconstruction, Short-Term Forecast, Wind Power Generation, Wind Speed Time Series

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* - Corresponding Author

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