New Asymmetric Five-Parameter Logistic Model for Forecasting Petroleum Consumption in China

Abstract:

The logistic model and the four-parameter logistic model have been very effective in forecasting many technological forecasting patterns. However, they have the characteristic of symmetry and cannot effectively model asymmetric data. This paper proposes a new asymmetric five-parameter logistic model for forecasting petroleum consumption in China. The logistic, four-parameter logistic and the newly proposed five-parameter logistic model are applied to the historical data on petroleum consumption in China. The good model fit has indicated that the five-parameter logistic model has performed better than the logistic model and the four-parameter logistic model for forecasting petroleum consumption in China. The forecasted results, based on the five-parameter logistic model, have shown that the petroleum consumption-production gap in China will become larger in the future and the gap will reach over 400 million tons after the year 2033.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 738-739)
• Pages: 483-488
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.738-739.483
• Online since: March 2015
• Authors: Li Qun Ji, Dan Dan Fang
• Keywords: Fitting, Forecasting, Logistic Model, Petroleum Consumption, Petroleum Production

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