Novel High-Precision Grey Forecasting Model and its Application of Deformation of Tunnel Surrounding Rock

Ning Gao; Xi Min Cui; Cai Yun Gao

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.90-93.2869

Paper Titles

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Study on Key Technology in the Control Surveying of Jinan-Qingdao Highway’s South Line
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An Improved Wavelet Threshold De-Noising Data Processing Method Research in Deformation Monitoring
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Determination of Seasonal Variations of Low-Degree Earth Gravity Field from CHAMP Geometric Orbits
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Novel High-Precision Grey Forecasting Model and its Application of Deformation of Tunnel Surrounding Rock
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The Application of Close-Range Digital Photogrammetry Based on the Neural Network in Crack-Monitoring
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Study Improved Background Value Functions of Non-Equidistance GM(1,1) Model in Surveying and Mapping Engineering
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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 90-93Novel High-Precision Grey Forecasting Model and...

Novel High-Precision Grey Forecasting Model and its Application of Deformation of Tunnel Surrounding Rock

Abstract:

Accurately estimating the deformation of tunnel surrounding rock is a very important work for surveyors, and we adopted grey model as a forecasting means because of its fast calculation with as few as four data inputs needed, however, the original GM (1, 1) model is not fit for dynamic and long data prediction. For this purpose, we propose a novel approach to improve prediction accuracy of GM(1,1) model through optimization of the initial condition and adoption the technique of rolling modeling, the new forecasting model termed RnGM(1,1). By using the optimized model to analyze and predict the deformation of tunnel surrounding rock and comparing this optimized model with other models, we finally draw a conclusion that this optimized model is able to improve the precision of prediction and therefore can be applied to deformation data analysis.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 90-93)

Pages:

2869-2874

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.90-93.2869

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Online since:

September 2011

Authors:

Ning Gao, Xi Min Cui, Cai Yun Gao

Keywords:

Deformation of Tunnel Surrounding Rock, Forecasting, GM(1,1) Model, Initial Condition, Rolling Modeling

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