A Probability Distribution Model to Simulate Wind Power Output Fluctuation

Chi Li; Chun Liu; Yue Hui Huang

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.1070-1072.171

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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vols. 1070-1072A Probability Distribution Model to Simulate Wind...

A Probability Distribution Model to Simulate Wind Power Output Fluctuation

Abstract:

It is of great significance for the safe and stable operation of power system to master the fluctuation characteristics of wind power output. On the basis of analyzing a large number of field measured data, a weighted mixed Gaussian probability model is proposed to simulate short-time wind power fluctuation characteristics of wind farm cluster, that evaluation indices to reflect the short-time maximum fluctuation of wind power output and maximum likelihood estimation algorithm based on Expectation Maximization (EM) to estimate model parameters are put forward. This model is compared with various other kinds of probability distribution model and the simulation results show that the weighted mixed Gaussian probability model possesses the highest precision, so as the effectiveness of the weighted mixed Gaussian probability model is verified.

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Periodical:

Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 1070-1072)

Pages:

171-176

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.1070-1072.171

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Online since:

December 2014

Authors:

Chi Li, Chun Liu, Yue Hui Huang

Keywords:

Evaluation Indices, Probability Density Function, Short-Time Wind Power Fluctuation, Weighted Mixed Gaussian Probability Model, Wind Power Output

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