Scenario Planning of Substitution of Wind Power for Coal-Fired Power: A Case Study from the Coastal Zone of Laizhou Bay, China

Abstract:

Emissions of air pollutants from coal-fired power plants pose a threat to healthy living environment. Developing renewable energy and changing electricity generation structure dominated by coal-fired power has become a vital national strategy. In this paper, taking a rapidly urbanizing coastal area in southern Laizhou Bay of China as the study area, a scenario planning concerning substitution of wind power for coal-fired power in enterprise-owned power plants was conducted. Coupled with the electricity generation prediction by a grey prediction model GM (1, 1) and the calculation of pollutant emission intensity, we obtained three scenario schemes: no substitution (Scenario 1), low substitution (Scenario 2) and high substitution (Scenario 3). The results showed that Scenario 1 is not acceptable; Scenario2 is acceptable, but not ideal; Scenario 3 is optimal. The electricity generation structure under Scenario 3 has been radically converted from the type dominated by fossil fuel to one dominated by renewable energy, becoming an environment-friendly power generation framework with fairly low pollutant emission densities. This study can contribute to local managers to seek more concrete measures in mitigating the conflict between electricity demand and environmental health.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 1073-1076)
• Pages: 301-307
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.1073-1076.301
• Online since: December 2014
• Authors: Xue Zhong Fan, Guang Jie Yang, Zhi Rong Jia, Qing Feng Zhao, Xue Bo Liu, Na Sun
• Keywords: Coal-Fired Power, Laizhou Bay, Renewable Energy, Scenario Planning, Wind Power

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