Research on the Interactive Transmission Mechanism of House Price in China - Based on a Mixed VAR Model
In order to study the interactive relationships between house price with marc-economy in China and reveal the transmission mechanism, this paper specifies a six dimensional VAR model to identify the forces driving house prices fluctuations in China over the period 1999-2009. By employing quarterly time series for real house prices, gross domestic product, money, consumer price index, market capitalization of tradable shares and labor remuneration of persons employed in all units, the author found that: (1) there is a stable and significant relationship of mutual causality between house price with these three factors including GDP, M2, CPI. (2) house price is quickly responses to the growth or falling of market capitalization of tradable shares .in other words ,it is a single causal relationship between them (3) There is not a significant causal relation between house price with labor remuneration .It may appear surprising. Yet this phenomenon accurately reflects the real estate bubble today. This paper deeply study the transmission mechanism of house price.
J. Q. Xu "Research on the Interactive Transmission Mechanism of House Price in China - Based on a Mixed VAR Model", Advanced Materials Research, Vols. 108-111, pp. 513-518, 2010