Modeling and Simulation on the New Technology Diffusion of Cars Using Cellular Automata
Based on cellular automata (CA), the new technology diffusions of domestic cars and completely knocked down (CKD) cars were modeled and simulated. It is found that: (1) CA method successfully examined the new technology diffusion of domestic and CKD cars, (2) the predicted results of domestic cars show four stages of the life cycle of new technology, but those of CKD cars display only the decline stage of the life cycle, (3) the present technology of domestic cars in China is in the period of growth stage and that of CKD cars is at the decline stage, (4) with the advanced technology and new service are created and introduced into the industry of domestic cars, CKD cars will lose their market and be gradually out of the market.
Yungang Li, Pengcheng Wang, Liqun Ai, Xiaoming Sang and Jinglong Bu
F. Ma and G. L. Chao, "Modeling and Simulation on the New Technology Diffusion of Cars Using Cellular Automata", Advanced Materials Research, Vols. 291-294, pp. 3171-3174, 2011