A Blackout Model Based on Optimal Risk Index and High-Risk Line Identification

Abstract:

This paper summarizes the defects of both OPA model and its improved models and then proposes a new model in order to simulate real power system roundly. There is an inner loop based on DC power flow optimization to minimize the change in generation or load shed and an outer loop based on the risk theory. In the outer loop, whether to improve the line capacity and how to improve are determined by risk index of line improvement (RILI) and line improvement degree function, respectively. A new prevention strategy against cascading failure is proposed by identifying the high-risk lines and determining optimal RILI which minimize line improvement cost and load loss. In the end, simulation based on 39-bus New England System reveals that new model is closer to real power system than the original one by comparing outage probability and load loss between the two models, and risk-based assessment interval and line improvement delay play important roles in prevention against power system outages, and improvement based on risk assessment can reduce outage probability to varying degrees, which illustrates the practical significance of optimal RILI.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 383-390)
• Pages: 2390-2397
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.383-390.2390
• Online since: November 2011
• Authors: Xue Yang Ding, Xin Dong Liu
• Keywords: Cascading Failure, OPA Model, Operational Planning, Risk-Based Assessment

References

[1] M. E. J. Newman, The structure and function of complex networks, SIAM Review, vol. 45, 2003, pp.37-47.

[2] I. Dobson, B. A. Carreras, and V. E. Lynch, An initial model for complex dynamics in electric power system blackouts, 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Maui, Hawaii, Jan. 2001, p.2017-(2023).

DOI: 10.1109/hicss.2001.926274

[3] B. A. Carreras, D. E. Newman, I. Dobson, and A. B. Poole, Evidence for self-organized criticality in electric power blackouts, 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Maui, Hawaii, Jan. 2001, pp.4038-4045.

DOI: 10.1109/hicss.2001.926273

[4] B. A. Carreras, V. E. Lynch, I. Dobson, and D. E. Newman, Critical points and transitions in an electric power transmission model for cascading failure blackouts, Chaos, vol. 12, Dec. 2002, pp.985-994.

DOI: 10.1063/1.1505810

[5] J. Chen, J. S. Thorp, and I. Dobson, Cascading dynamics and mitigation assessment in power system disturbances via a hidden failure model, International Journal Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol. 27, Dec. 2005, pp.318-326.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2004.12.003

[6] S. W. Mei, X. F. Weng, A. C. Xue, and F. He, Power system blackout model based on OPF and its self-organized criticality, Automation of Electric Power Systems, vol. 30, July. 2006, pp.1-5.

DOI: 10.1109/chicc.2006.280819

[7] G. Wang, S. W. Mei, and W. Hu, Blackout model with reactive power and voltage and its self-organized criticality, Automation of Electric Power Systems, vol. 31, Jan. 2007, pp.9-13.

[8] M. A. Rios, D. S. Kirschen, D. Jayaweera, D. P. Nedic, and R. N. Allan, Value of security: modeling time dependent phenomena and weather conditions, IEEE Trans on Power Systems, vol. 17, Aug. 2002, pp.543-548.

DOI: 10.1109/tpwrs.2002.800872

[9] D. S. Kirschen, D. Jayaweera, D. P. Nedic, and R. N. Allan, A probabilistic indicator of system stress, IEEE Trans on Power Systems, vol. 19, Aug. 2004, pp.1650-1657.

DOI: 10.1109/tpwrs.2004.831665

[10] D. P. Nedic, I. Dobson, D. S. Kirschen, B. A. Carreras, and V. E. Lynch, Criticality in a cascading failure blackout model, International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol. 28, Mar. 2006, pp.627-633.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2006.03.006

[11] S. W. Mei, F. He, X. M. Zhang, and D. M. Xia, An improved OPA model and t he evaluation of blackout risk, Automation of Electric Power Systems, vol. 32, July. 2008, pp.1-5.

[12] Y. J. CAO, L. J. Ding, G. Z. Wang, Z. J. Bao, and Z. X. Han, Analysis on Cascading Failure and Self-organized Criticality in Evolving Power Grids, Automation of Electric Power Systems, vol. 33, Mar. 2009, pp.1-6.

[13] Y. J. CAO, G. Z. Wang, Z. X. Han, L. J. Ding, Z. J. Bao, and L. H. Cao, A Cascading Failures Model in Power Grid Considering Topology Evolvement, Automation of Electric Power Systems, vol. 33, May. 2009, pp.5-9.

[14] D. M. Xia, S. W. Mei, C. Shen, and A. C. Xue, Computation of optimal power flow with transient stability margin index, Automation of Electric Power Systems, vol. 30, Dec. 2006, pp.5-10.

DOI: 10.1109/icpst.2006.321757

[15] D. M. Xia, S. W. Mei, and Y. H. Hou, Power system blackout model via OTS and it s self-organized criticality, Automation of Electric Power Systems, vol. 31, Jun. 2007, pp.12-18.

[16] H. Wan, J. D. and McCalley, V. Vittal, Risk based voltage security assessment, IEEE Trans on Power Systems, vol. 15, Nov. 2000, pp.1247-1254.

DOI: 10.1109/59.898097

[17] M. Ni, J. D. and McCalley, V. Vittal, T. Tayyib, Online risk-based security assessment, " IEEE Trans on Power Systems, vol. 18, Feb. 2003, pp.258-265.

DOI: 10.1109/tpwrs.2002.807091

[18] J. D. McCalley, V. Vittal, and N. Abi-Samra, An overview of risk based security assessment, IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, Alberta, Canada, May. 1999. pp.173-178.

DOI: 10.1109/pess.1999.784342

[19] M. A. Pai, Energy function analysis for power system stability, Boston, MA, USA, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1989, in press.