Study on the Establishment of the Modified Grey-Markov Model and its Application

Sai Yang Hu; Song Jiang Ma; Dao Cheng Luo

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.524-527.3182

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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vols. 524-527Study on the Establishment of the Modified...

Study on the Establishment of the Modified Grey-Markov Model and its Application

Abstract:

The accurate prediction of the coal production in the future is an important basis for reasonably determining the production target and development planning. To combine the Grey system theory with the discrete – state Markov chain theory, the modified GM (1, 1) and Original Grey-Markov models were built based on the smoothing of the initial data of the 1998~2008 annual coal production in China over the years by way of a natural logarithm. The calculated results show that the predicted accuracy of the modified Markov model was significantly higher than the modified GM (1, 1) model. The predicted results are reliable and have certain universal practicability.

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Periodical:

Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 524-527)

Pages:

3182-3189

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.524-527.3182

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Online since:

May 2012

Authors:

Sai Yang Hu, Song Jiang Ma, Dao Cheng Luo

Keywords:

Application, GM(1,1) Model, Grey System, Markov Chain, Total Coal Production

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