Exploratory Research on Earnings Forecast Model-Based on Chinese Manufacturing Companies

Lu Zhuang Wang; Zheng Yuan Wang; Zi Shu Yuan

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.566.580

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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vol. 566Exploratory Research on Earnings Forecast...

Exploratory Research on Earnings Forecast Model-Based on Chinese Manufacturing Companies

Abstract:

This paper takes China's manufacturing listed companies as an example, applies matching T test to select key financial indicators, uses factor analysis to determine the main factors, and explores company earnings forecast models by comparing different kinds of stepwise regression plans. Empirical results showed that by means of properly linear combination of key financial indicators from this year, it is possible to estimate the earning, EPS, for next year. The accuracy of the forecast can reach 80% for Top 10 profitable enterprises, and 62% for Top 100, which validated the effectiveness of this exploration for earnings forecasting. Finally, based on the prediction model, the authors put forward some suggestions for improving financial management of listed companies.

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Periodical:

Advanced Materials Research (Volume 566)

Pages:

580-583

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.566.580

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Online since:

September 2012

Authors:

Lu Zhuang Wang, Zheng Yuan Wang, Zi Shu Yuan

Keywords:

Earnings Forecast Model, Manufacturing Listed Companies, Stepwise Regression

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