Dynamic Co-Integration Analysis of the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Abstract:

The paper applies the Holt-Winter non-seasonal model to predict carbon dioxide emissions in the next five years and finds a rising trend. Then, through establishing a VAR model bases on the Granger causality test between carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption, the application of the Johansen cointegration test finds that there is a long-term equilibrium between carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption. This long-term equilibrium plays an “adjusting” role in the process of balancing dioxide emissions and energy consumption. It is obvious on the adjustment effect from short-term fluctuations to the long-term equilibrium. Finally, this paper puts forward corresponding policy proposals for China's low-carbonization of energy consumption.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volume 601)
• Pages: 526-531
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.601.526
• Online since: December 2012
• Authors: Feng Yun Wang, Jun Ling Dou
• Keywords: Carbon Dioxide Emission, ECM, Energy Consumption (EC), VAR Model

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