Hybrid Prediction Method of Aviation Unsafe Events Based on Grey Catastrophe and Regression Analysis

Xu Sheng Gan; Jing Shun Duanmu; Jian Guo Gao

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.739.759

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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vol. 739Hybrid Prediction Method of Aviation Unsafe Events...

Hybrid Prediction Method of Aviation Unsafe Events Based on Grey Catastrophe and Regression Analysis

Abstract:

In order to improve the prediction of aviation unsafe events, a hybrid prediction method of aviation unsafe events based on grey catastrophe and regression analysis method is proposed. At first, the catastrophe points (date) are found from original unsafe events data to establish the grey catastrophe model for predicting the future catastrophe points, and then the grey prediction model for these catastrophe points is built to calculate the catastrophe value corresponding to future catastrophe points. For non-catastrophe points, the appropriate regression analysis model needs to be established. Example validates its effectiveness.

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Periodical:

Advanced Materials Research (Volume 739)

Pages:

759-763

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.739.759

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Online since:

August 2013

Authors:

Xu Sheng Gan, Jing Shun Duanmu, Jian Guo Gao

Keywords:

Aviation Unsafe Events, Grey Catastrophe, Hybrid Prediction, Regression Analysis

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