Human Factor Analysis Model of Civil Aviation Incidents Based on Bayesian Network

Abstract:

To generate a model which can provides detailed data analysis supportive in aviation incident analysis, a human factor analysis model based on Bayesian network theory is established. This model is a Bayesian network which uses three layers nodes to represent causality between human factors and incidents. The specific impact degree of human factors on aviation incidents is represented by conditional probability parameters of the model. The model structure, constructed by combing hill-climbing search method with CH score function, coincides with the actual data. This model is useful in aviation incident analyses and deductions.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 756-759)
• Pages: 3074-3078
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.756-759.3074
• Online since: September 2013
• Authors: Ming Ming Zhang, Yan Yang Wang, Min Luo, Wen Zhong Tang
• Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Bayesian Network (BN), Civil Aviation Safety, Human Factors, Incident Analysis

References

[1] Lang Guopeng. Analysis of Accident Resulted from Human Factors in Safety Management., Journal of civil aviation university of China, 27(4), pp.18-21, (2009).

[2] Ma Rui, Yuan Xiugan. Human error analysis of mid-air collision of Brazil civil aviation, Proc., Int. Symp. on 1st International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety: Multimodal Approach to Sustained Transportation System Development - Information, Technology, Implementation, ICTIS 2011. Wuhan, China. ASCE, Reston, VA, 1358-1363. (2011).

DOI: 10.1061/41177(415)173

[3] Zhiqin Huo, Zinan Xie. Application of Reason Model to Air Traffic Control, , CSSJ, Jan (2008).

[4] Ruishan Sun, Lei Wang, Analysis of human factors integration aspects for aviation accidents and incidents, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pp.834-841, (2007).

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-73331-7_91

[5] Wang Yonggang, Wang Yan. Multidimensional analysis model of accident causes resulted from human factors., Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, pp.96-100, (2008).

[6] Zhang Huiying, Ning Yuan, Reasoning and Analysis of Bayesian Network in Machine Learning, , Modern Machinery, Vol 2, (2012).

[7] Zhang Lianwen, Guo Haipeng, Bayesian network introduction, Science press, Beijing. Structure learning, pp.172-191, (2006).

[8] Cao Weidong, Lin Xiangyu. Flight turnaround time analysis and delay prediction based on Bayesian network, Computer Engineering and Design, 32(5), pp.1770-1773, (2001).

[9] Griffin, Thomas G.C. A complex network approach to aviation accident analysis, Annual Conference of the Ergonomics Society on Contemporary Ergonomics 2007, April 2007, pp.67-72, (2007).

DOI: 10.1201/9781315106595-11

[10] Shappel,S. And Wiegmann. Applying Reason: The human factors analysis and classification system, p.59–86 , (2001).