A Prediction Model of Future Electricity Pricing in Namibia

Abstract:

The shortage of local electricity generation capacity coupled with increasing reliance on South Africa, from which it imports about forty-eight (48%) percent of its electricity, and another five (5%) percent from Zambia, Zimbabwe and other short term energy markets constitute the major shortcomings of electricity industry in Namibia.Therefore, price stability and volatility indices of electricity can directly impact on the developmental imperatives of any nation. This is so because the quality, quantity and pricing of electricity available to the citizenry have become the common denominators for measuring the standards of living of any commune, like Namibia. Extensive literature searchand review, and about 127 yielded questionnaires out of the 300 administered questionnaires; were used to gather data for the study. The yielded survey data were subsequently subjected to statistical analyses using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 11.5) to develop a sigmoid plot for predicting the future electricity pricing model for Namibia employing first order differential equations. The results show that the generalisedlogistic equation model for the future pricing of electricity consumed in Namibia, increased by about 13.52% per year. Upon substituting the available 1995 electricity pricing data into the logistic equation model, it was possible to predict the future electricity price for 2010, with about 1.8% error. It can be seen that the developed logistic model fit is only viable for about fifteen (15) years. It is suggested that, better estimates can be obtained if the median electricity price for either 2002 or 2003 is used as the initial electricity price, to obtain more credible electricity prices with longertime ranges, for Namibia.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volume 824)
• Pages: 93-99
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.824.93
• Online since: September 2013
• Authors: Godwin Norense Osarumwense Asemota
• Keywords: Development, Error, Generation Capacity, Imports, Logistic Equation, Planning Period, Sigmoid Plot

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