International Comparison and Forecast of China Biofuel Production: Based on Hubbert Model

Abstract:

In recent years, China biofuel has been developed rapidly, but still has certain gap with other countries such as U.S. and so on. This paper makes brief comparison of the China’s biofuel production with the U.S. firstly, and finds that smallest gap of biofuel production between two countries happened in 2006, and expands later. In order to judge the production changes of biofuel, the Hubbert model is used to analyze possible trends of the China biofuel production by first generation Secondly, based on the forecast scenarios, which are set according to resources and the technical factors. The results show that production would possibly reach the peak around 66 million barrels in 2025. Finally, this paper compares future Sino-U.S. biofuel production trends, and finds that China’s biofuel production in 2020 would be same as that of the U.S. in 2003.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 953-954)
• Pages: 240-245
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.953-954.240
• Online since: June 2014
• Authors: Ming Yu Li, Guang Sheng Zhang*
• Keywords: Biofuel, Hubbert Model, Production Comparison, Production Peak, Resource

References

[1] M. Zeller, M. Grass. Prospects challenges of biofuels in developing countries, 106th seminar of the EAAE Pro-poor development in Low Income Countries: Food, Agriculture, Trade, and Environment, October, Montpellier, France. (2007).

[2] W. Coyle, T. Armbruster and J. Walter: AARES 51st Annual Conference in Queenstown, New Zealand, February (2007), p.13.

[3] Q. Y. Zhu: Gansu Science and Technology, No. 3 (2008. ), p.10 (In Chinese).

[4] W. G. Wu, H. G. Qiu and J. K. Huang: China Soft Science, No. 3 (2009), p.10 (In Chinese).

[5] X. Y. Li: China Economic & Trade, No. 17 (2008), p.9 (In Chinese).

[6] R. C. Duncan, W. Youngquist: Natural Resources Research, Vol. 8, No. 3 (1999), p.219.

[7] M. Al-Husseini. GeoArabia, Vol. 11, No. 2 (2006), p.181.

[8] Z. P. Tao, M. Y. Li: Energy policy, Vol. 35, No. 4 (2007), p.2281.

[9] U. Bardi: Energy Policy, Vol. 33, No. 1, (2005), p.53.

[10] J. Laherrere: Multi-Hubbert Modeling - Hubbert Peak of Oil Production. http: /www. Hubbert peak. com/laherrere/multihub. htm. 2006-06-15.

[11] D. Li, in: 2011 China's New Energy and Renewable Energy Statistical Yearbook, editied by D. H. Shi, China's Renewable Energy Association, Beijing (2012), in press. (In Chinese).