Study on Forecasting the OD Volume of Railway Luggage and Parcel

Abstract:

The OD volume of railway luggage and parcel on Beijing-Guangzhou Corridor is forecasted by using the gray model and the gravity model. According to the historical statistical data, firstly the sending and arrival volume of railway luggage and parcel of the major cities on Beijing-Guangzhou Corridor is forecasted by applying the gray model and it takes the Beijing volume of railway luggage and parcel for example to show the calculative process. Secondly, by using the least squares method to calibrate the sample data, obtain the value of each coefficient to be determined, get the calibrated gravity model and then the OD volume of railway luggage and parcel is forecasted by adopting the gravity model. Finally the rationality of the forecasting results is analyzed and the forecasting results which can be used in the railway luggage and parcel organization work have a high accuracy and meet the actual needs.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 105-107)
• Pages: 1280-1283
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.105-107.1280
• Online since: September 2011
• Authors: Xue Fei Li, Mao Xiang Lang
• Keywords: Gravity Model, Gray Model, Luggage Parcel, Luggage Transport, OD Volume Forecasting

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