Electric Vehicle Forecasting for China from 2011 to 2050 Based on Scenario Analysis
With climate change being growing concerns, the development of EV (Electric Vehicles) has taken on an accelerated pace. This paper is to forecast China’s EV stock from 2011 to 2050 based on the double species growth model. We elaborate two orbits according to two scenarios: with vehicle stock being 200 and 300 per thousand people at 2050. These orbits reveals that, China’s EVs development has a golden stage which will last 10 to 11 years; And before this booming stage, there is a slowly growth period which will last 7 to 8 years. Furthermore, under each scenario, the difference between EVs and ICEVs (Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles) stock at 2030 is 4.69% to 6.77%, which confirms that China’s ambitious EVs program may be realized if government sets strong policy supports on this new industry persistently.
S. J. Fu and Y. L. Ren, "Electric Vehicle Forecasting for China from 2011 to 2050 Based on Scenario Analysis", Applied Mechanics and Materials, Vols. 128-129, pp. 846-849, 2012