Applied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 475-476

Abstract: High-tech projects have high risks involving wide range of links, high expense of investment, long period of development and production cycle, complicated operation system, etc. When evaluating the project's risk, a separate gray method or fuzzy theory model is not comprehensive, it should combine the gray method with the fuzzy evaluation model. From the fuzzy evaluation and gray evaluation method the gray clustering statistic could be obtained by use of grey cluster theory. It is necessary to construct fuzzy membership matrix of risk and establish a fuzzy and gray comprehensive evaluation method, and adequately adopt expert's evaluation information of the fuzziness and grayness. Finally, using concrete empirical analysis in aviation armament project risk assessment, the feasibility and the correctness of the model are verified.

Abstract: This paper concentrates on the gridding urban management (GUM). In the background of the rapid development of the process of urbanization and urban-scale, based on computer grid technology and space grid technology, Integrated Gridding Urban Management (IGUM) of the modern city is established, which included city management, economic management and social management into the areas of urban grid system. This model manages to further enrich the contents of the urban grid management. Furthermore, Knowledge-based gridding urban management (KGUM) mode is put up for the future of the smart-sensor city to realize real-time dynamic and intelligent city management.

Abstract: In recent years, CM mode and Partnering mode, as two crucial project management modes, have been widely applied to the construction industry in the developed countries. However, domestic research on these new modes is still at the starting stage, lagging far behind the international advanced level. On the basis of an in-depth analysis on the concepts and features of the above two modes, this essay puts forward a new kind of project management composition pattern--CM+Partnering, aiming at drawing on each others comparative advantages. It highlights the superiority of the CM+Partnering pattern through comparing it with traditional modes. Finally it discusses the feasibility of its application in the project management with the aid of a case study. Keywords: engineering project management, At Risk CM, Partnering pattern, composition pattern

Abstract: EGARCH-VaR model is established for measure the liquidity risk. Meanwhile, liquidity gap is selected as the measurement index. It is tested that logarithmic difference time series of the bank liquidity gap have the characteristics of peak and fat tail distribution and high-order ARCH effect. By using the maximum likelihood estimation method for EGARCH model’s perturbation parameter estimation, the value of VaR is calculated and tested. Comparing with GARCH model, EGARCH-VaR model is more accurate and efficient.