The Application of Bayesian Statistics in Calculating Project Buffer

Feng Ye; Gui Chen Xu; Di Kang Zhu

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.58-60.1018

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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 58-60The Application of Bayesian Statistics in...

The Application of Bayesian Statistics in Calculating Project Buffer

Abstract:

This paper reviews several current methods of calculating buffer on the basis of pointing out each merits and pitfalls and then introduces Bayesian statistical approach to CCS / BM domain to calculate the size of the project buffer, to overcome that the current method of the buffer calculation is too subjective and the defect on lacking of practical application. In Crystal Ball, we compare the simulation results of implementation process on the benchmark of C&PM, RESM and SM. The results show that the buffer using this method can ensure the stability of the project’s completion probability, and this method has great flexibility.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 58-60)

Pages:

1018-1024

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.58-60.1018

Citation:

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Online since:

June 2011

Authors:

Feng Ye, Gui Chen Xu, Di Kang Zhu

Keywords:

Bayesian Statistic, BM, CCS, Project Buffer, Simulation

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References

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