Probabilistic Analysis of Gun Barrel Ablation Life Based on the Modified Response Surface Model

Abstract:

The randomness of structural and material parameters needs to be considered in the reliability analysis of gun barrel ablation life. However, the traditional method, like Stochastic FEM sampling, results in huge computing workload and low efficiency. This paper proposed a modified response surface model for estimating the gun barrel ablation life. In which, the estimation error of the response surface model is the optimization goal. Gauss-Newton method (GNM) is used to get the optimal solution whose initial value is solved by Genetic-algorithm (GA). After that, ablation life can be calculated by the optimized response surface model. GA is effective in global solution space searching, while GNM is effective in local searching. The new method takes full advantages of both GA and GNM in parameters estimation. The simulation result shows that the combination of GA and GNM obtains a higher precision of ablation estimation and greatly improves the computational efficiency.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 1004-1005)
• Pages: 1076-1083
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.1004-1005.1076
• Online since: August 2014
• Authors: Wei Zhou*, Jun Fang
• Keywords: Ablation Life, Gauss-Newton Method, Genetic Algorithm (GA), Gun Barrel, Response Surface Model

References

[1] Rack witz R. Reliability analysis: A review and some perspectives [J]. Structural Safety, 2001, 23(4): 365-395.

[2] Kim SH，Na SW. Response surface method using vector project Edam pling points [J]. Structural Safety，1997, 19(1)：3–19.

DOI: 10.1016/s0167-4730(96)00037-9

[3] Zheng Y，Das PK. Improved response surface method and its application to stiffened plate reliability analysis [J]. Engineering Structures，2000，22(5)：544–551.

DOI: 10.1016/s0141-0296(98)00136-9

[4] Guan Xl，Melchers RE. Effect of response surface parameter variation on structural reliability estimates[J]. Structural Safety，2001，23(4)：429-444.

DOI: 10.1016/s0167-4730(02)00013-9

[5] Pan Lei , Gu Liangxian, YAN Daiwei. Research on improved response surface method and its performance [J], Journal of Astronautics, 2009, 30(2): 806-810. In Chinese.

[6] Wu Yong-hai. Theoretical studies of rapid-fire weapon barrel modern design. In Chinese [doctoral dissertation]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Science and Technology, 2010. In Chinese.

[7] Wu Bin, Xia Wei, TANG Yong, YE Bangyan. Mathematical Modal for Predicting Melt-erosion in Gun Barrels [J]. Gun Launch & Control Journal. 2002, (1): 5-10. In Chinese.

[8] Wu Bin, Xia Wei. Heat Transfer in Gun Barrel Based on Inverse Heat Conduction Problems[J], Acta Armamentarii, 2005, 26(3): 299-302. In Chinese.

[9] Duan Nan, Xue Huiming . A method for determining the number realizations in the calculation of reliability by Monte Carlo simulation method [J], Coal Mine Machinery, 2002 (3): 13-14. In Chinese.

[10] Hou Jian, Han Yuli. Research of Gun Barrel Strength Design Theory and Safety Coefficient [J]. Journal of Ballistics, 2009, 21(3): 44-47. In Chinese.