Forecast of Railway Freight Ton-Kilometers Based on the UBGPM-Markov Model

Hong Bing Lu; Rui Song

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.1030-1032.2199

Paper Titles

Analysis and Optimization of Hangzhou East Area Traffic Based on the Congestion Index Detection Platform
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Analysis of Intersection Signal Delay Based on VISSIM Simulation
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Delay Analysis and Application of Signal Control Intersections
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Design of TVM Based on Parallel Virtual Queuing Theory
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Forecast of Railway Freight Ton-Kilometers Based on the UBGPM-Markov Model
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Measuring Efficiency of Main Airports in Thailand by an Integrated DEA-AHP Method
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Modeling Timetable Coordination in Urban Mass Transit Networks
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Study on Connection Optimization of Last Train Departure Time on Urban Mass Transit Network
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The Bluetooth Module Design of TVM Trans-Province Express Train
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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vols. 1030-1032Forecast of Railway Freight Ton-Kilometers Based...

Forecast of Railway Freight Ton-Kilometers Based on the UBGPM-Markov Model

Abstract:

To raise the forecast precision of railway freight ton-kilometers, the unbiased GM (1, 1) power model was applied to predict the development trend. The Markov chain method was used to process the random fluctuations and correct the forecast values. Thus the optimized UBGPM-Markov model was established. The example analysis shows that the unbiased GM (1, 1) power model is superior to the GM (1, 1) model in both scope of application and prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the UBGPM-Markov model has reduced the mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) from 1.72% to 0.70%.