Building Cooling Load Forecasting Based on Support Vector Machines with Simulated Annealing

Abstract:

Accurate forecasting of building cooling load has been one of the most important issues in the electricity industry. Recently, along with energy-saving optimal control, accurate forecast of electricity load has received increasing attention. Because of the general nonlinear mapping capabilities of forecasting, artificial neural networks have played a crucial role in forecasting electricity load. Support vector machines (SVMs) have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. In order to improve time efficiency of prediction, a new hourly cooling load prediction model and method based on Support Vector Machine in this paper. Moreover, simulated annealing (SA) algorithms were employed to choose the parameters of a SVM model. Subsequently, examples of cooling load data from Guangzhou were used to illustrate the proposed SVM-SA model. A comparison of the performance between SVM optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (SVM-PSO) and SVM-SA is carried out. Experiments results demonstrate that SVM-SA can achieve better accuracy and generalization than the SVM-PSO. Consequently, the SVM-SA model provides a promising alternative for forecasting building load.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 108-111)
• Pages: 1003-1008
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.108-111.1003
• Online since: May 2010
• Authors: Xue Mei Li, Li Xing Ding, Jin Hu Lǔ, lan Lan Li
• Keywords: Cooling Load Forecasting, Saving Energy, Simulated Annealing (SA), Support Vector Regression (SVR)

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