Study on the Model of Construction Accident Forecast Based on Grey-Markov Theory

Abstract:

According to the grey system theory and markov principle, the fitting accuracy index is stochastic and fluctuant when time series datadevelopment trend is fitted through the grey theory; but the markov principle is suitable for processing the system with great stochastic fluctuation; therefore, a forecast model is put forward which is in accordance with the characteristics of construction accidents’ statistical data and is based on the grey system theory and markov principle. The model is suitable for the dynamic forecasting process featured by short forecasting time, small data quality and great stochastic fluctuation. The conclusion about the development trend of construction accidents with the model based on the grey-markov theory is more ideal compared with the grey model. The application example shows that the forecasting conclusion based on grey-markov theory is more accurate and more reliable. So the model is available enough to forecast the construction accidents.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 433-440)
• Pages: 2874-2880
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.433-440.2874
• Online since: January 2012
• Authors: Guo Zhong Huang, Hui Liu, Can Sheng Yang, Zhong Guang Wu
• Keywords: Construction Accident, Forecasting Model, Grey System Theory, Markov Principle

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.11.001