Performance Reliability Modeling Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract:

Performance reliability method (PRM) has great advantages on modeling with few failure data by using the performance degradation data. The purpose of this paper is to find the defects of PRM based on HOLT model, and PRM method based on ARIMA model was proposed by introducing the product fleet real-time performance reliability information to the measuring points. Finally, an example applying on the aero-engine remaining life prediction was taken to validate that PRM method based on ARIMA model can avoid variances errors derived from the formula, compared with the PRM model based on HOLT model. The relative error of the improved method has 11.765% lower. So we can draw a conclusion that this method is effective and feasible.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 452-453)
• Pages: 1049-1053
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.452-453.1049
• Online since: January 2012
• Authors: Fang Bai
• Keywords: Degradation Data, Performance, Performance Reliability Modeling (PRM), Remaining Life Prediction

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