The Short-Term Forecast Model of Pork Price Based on CNN-GA

Abstract:

After analyzing and reviewing the short-term forecasting methods research of pork price at home and abroad, a chaotic neural network model based on genetic algorithm (CNN-GA) was put forward according to the nonlinear characteristics of pork price,which established on the base of the chaotic theory and the neural network technology. Chosen the daily retail price data of the pork (streaky pork) from January 1, 2008 to June 11, 2012,we designed the basic structure of CNN-GA, and thentrainedit in order to attain the trained CNN-GA model. Finally, the trained CNN-GA model was used to predict the 20 days’ (from June 12, 2012 to July 1, 2012) retail price of pork (streaky pork) and then compared the predicted price with the real price to test the model’s forecast accuracy and application ability.The result shows that the model has high prediction precision, good fitting effect and hasan important reference and practical significance for the short-term price forecasting of the pork market.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volume 628)
• Pages: 350-358
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.628.350
• Online since: December 2012
• Authors: Zhe Min Li, Shi Wei Xu, Li Guo Cui, Gan Qiong Li, Xiao Xia Dong, Jian Zhai Wu
• Keywords: CNN-GA, Forecast Model, Neural Network (NN), Pork Price

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