Computer Simulation Forecast of the Markov Chain for Payback Period of Construction Projects Investment

Meng Fang Zhang; Liang Huang; Lu Yang Shan

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.671-674.3096

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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vols. 671-674Computer Simulation Forecast of the Markov Chain...

Computer Simulation Forecast of the Markov Chain for Payback Period of Construction Projects Investment

Abstract:

The investment payback period of construction projects is an important index that evaluate and measure economic effect of project investment. It is difficult that the investment payback period of construction projects is calculated generally using analytic method.We established the mathematical model of the payback period, the annual net cash flows are Markov chains. According to the similar projects, collected net yearly cash flow and each quarter net cash flow, A one-step transition probability matrix was described by using the computer simulation of Markov chains, forecasted the dynamic and static payback period of construction projects investment. so as to provide the scientific basis data for decision makers.

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Periodical:

Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 671-674)

Pages:

3096-3099

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.671-674.3096

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Online since:

March 2013

Authors:

Meng Fang Zhang, Liang Huang, Lu Yang Shan

Keywords:

Computer Simulation, Constriction Project, Investment Risk, Markov Chain, Payback Period of Investment

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