Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Potential Analysis Based on Industrial Structure and Scientific Technology Progress in China

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Energy saving and emission reduction is a necessary way for China to develop low carbon economy. Based on the knowledge of industrial structure adjustment and scientific technology progress, a potential analysis is addressed through four general models, namely modified structure evolution-energy intensity interconnection model, modified structure evolution-carbon dioxide emission intensity interconnection model, scientific technology progress-energy intensity interconnection model and scientific technology progress-carbon dioxide emission intensity interconnection model. It shows that both industrial structure adjustment and scientific technology have a great significance on energy saving and carbon emission reduction in China during the period from 1995 to 2010, and industrial structure adjustment shows more energy saving and emission reduction potential than scientific technology progress. With the development of industrial structure and scientific technology, during the 12th five-year plan period, the energy intensity saving potential of them are 0.5166 and 1.0526tce/10,000RMB respectively; and the carbon emission intensity potential of them are 1.2883 and 2.9536t/10,000RMB respectively. So it is very important to make full use of scientific technology progress potential to service for energy saving and emission reduction in the future.

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417-421

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October 2013

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© 2014 Trans Tech Publications Ltd. All Rights Reserved

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