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Modeling Of Economic Forecasting Of Manufacturing Processes In Transport Services Market WOJCECHOWSKI Łukasz1,a*,CISOWSKI Tadeusz2,b 1Institute of Technological Systems of Information, Lublin University of Technology, Nadbystrzycka Street 36, 20-618 Lublin, Poland 2Department of Logistics, Polish Air Force Academy, Dywizjonu 303 Street 35, 08-521 Dęblin al.wojciechowski@pollub.pl, btadeuszc@poczta.onet.pl Keywords: manufacturing systems, transport, logistics, technological systems.
Let us determine statistical factors which affect the forecast (all the factors are vectors defined by a moment of time in a retrospective period): El(Y) are social and economic indicators of the region Y, l∈L; El are social and economic indicators on macro level; Pk(xi,yj) is the k-th type transport between xi and yj, k∈K; Rk(xi,yj) is an indicator for the k-th type transport provided by an alternative (rival) mode of transportation; Ck(xi,yj) denotes the dynamics of a tariff policy of rail transport and a rival (alternative) mode of transportation; Ok(xi,yj) are rail transport capacities for the k-th type transport from xi to yj; Sk(xi,yj) are the capacities of rival (alternative) modes of transportation for the k-th type transport.
The forecast for the k-th type transport for a period T can be expressed as the functional: PkTxi,yj=F(El, ElY, Pkxi,yj, Rkxi,yj, Ckxi,yj, Okxi,yj, Skxi,yj) (1) Functional (1) presents a generalized relationship between the predicted volume and the statistical retrospective data.
Based on the correlation relationships between transport of the type Rk and the social and economic indicators of the region El, we determine L⊆L, i.e. ratios with a ”high” degree of correlation r(Rk,El) where r(Rk,El)>rmin , for all l∈L where rmin is based on expert evaluation.

.%] Alloy Al Ti Nb Cr Mo W Co C B Fe Ni Others IN718 0.56 1.00 5.35 18.9 3.30 - - 0.026 0.0015 Bal. 53.1 - GH761 1.63 3.36 - 13.1 1.66 3.15 - 0.046 0.005 Bal. 44.3 GH4133 0.98 2.90 1.35 20.2 - - - 0.035 0.003 - bal. - K417G 5.30 4.40 - 9.10 3.10 - 10.10 0.180 0.019 - bal. 0.07V 0.06Zr Table 2.
Effect of phosphorus on the 650℃/700MPa stress rupture properties of IN718 alloy P content [%] Life [h] EL [%] RA [%] 0.005P 389 10.7 37.9 0.022P 869* 15.0 44.2 *The stress was increased to 750MPa after 800h Table 4.
Effect of phosphorus on tensile properties of IN718 alloy at room temperature and 650℃ 25℃ 650℃ P content [%] YS [MPa] UTS [MPa] EL [%] RA [%] YS [MPa] UTS [MPa] EL [%] RA [%] 0.005 1265 1420 20.0 52.0 1060 1215 26.5 58.5 0.022 1215 1390 20.3 46.0 1040 1185 23.5 52.5 Fig.2 Effect of phosphorus on the stress rupture property of GH4133 alloy at 700°C/500 MPa Table 5.
Effect of phosphorus on the room temperature and 650℃tensile properties of GH761 alloy 25℃ 650℃ P content [%] YS [MPa] UTS [MPa] EL [%] RA [%] YS [MPa] UTS [MPa] EL [%] RA [%] 0.0007 920 1320 20 24 918 1170 18 25 0.013 930 1320 18 23 908 1150 17 24 0.017 938 1320 18 20 893 1150 19 24 0.023 935 1350 20 24 890 1160 16 25 0.028 940 1320 18 21 900 1155 17 26 0.031 925 1325 19 18 927 1120 15 23 0.040 908 1310 19 23 870 1140 15 18 Table 7.
Mechanical properties of GH761 alloy with 0.023% phosphorus and ASTM8-10 grain size Stress Rupture Properties Tensile Properties 650℃/700MPa 25℃ 650℃ Life [h] EL [%] RA [%] YS [MPa] UTS [MPa] EL [%] RA [%] YS [MPa] UTS [MPa] EL [%] RA [%] 419 35 51 1090 1425 24 42 1020 1230 21 47 Summary Phosphorus was not dissolved in the γ matrix of superalloys and was segregated in the residual liquids seriously during solidification.

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