FTA-BN Approach to Risk Assessment of Die Casting Die and Risk Mitigation Solution in 4Ps Development Framework
In this paper the proposed methodology of FTA-BN (Fault Tree Analysis - Bayesian Networks) approach to risk assessment is outlined and its application is demonstrated using a simple case study of on-time delivery risk. First the potential risk scenarios are identified and represented in term of a fault tree, next, using the fault tree and prior probability, posterior probabilities are estimated and inferred by Bayesian approach. A creation of a best-of-breed work flow, which is based on the standardization of 4Ps framework of development and management processes of die casting die has been established for the solution to mitigate the risk analyzed by Bayesian approach. 4Ps framework covers from the prioritized customer outcomes and die casting die buy-in stage to EV/DV/PV building trial run and die casting mold termination stage with the scalability and flexibility, not only to improve die casting die quality and on-time delivery, but also to mitigate any risk in design and manufacturing process.
Dunwen Zuo, Hun Guo, Hongli Xu, Chun Su, Chunjie Liu and Weidong Jin
J.J. Jiang et al., "FTA-BN Approach to Risk Assessment of Die Casting Die and Risk Mitigation Solution in 4Ps Development Framework ", Advanced Materials Research, Vol. 136, pp. 269-274, 2010