Research of Combined Optimum Grey Model to Mid and Long Term Electric Load Forecasting

Abstract:

It is well known that mid and long term electric load forecasting has many uncertain factors that influence the forecasting precision greatly, so every forecasting method has its limitation. Considering limitations of basic grey model and conventional improved models, a new practical method called combined optimum grey model for mid and long term load forecasting is introduced. The combined model is composed of partial error optimum grey model (GM) as well as equa-l dimension and new-information grey model. The forecasting algorithm can estimate model parameters, meet the requirements of dynamic power load and overcome random disturbances. Example analysis shows that the forecasting error is below 3 percent. Compared with conventional theoretical methods, the proposed scheme has the characters of simple computation, high forecasting precision and good applicability.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 986-987)
• Pages: 1379-1382
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.986-987.1379
• Online since: July 2014
• Authors: Xiang Shuo He*, Li Yang, Xiao Na Yu
• Keywords: Combination Optimum Model, Equa-L Dimension, Grey Modeling, Load Forecasting, New-Information, Partial Error

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DOI: 10.1016/s0378-7796(01)00097-9