Engineering Headway Vol. 36

Abstract: Energy transition projects encounter delays due to governance-related risks like regulatory ambiguity, corruption, stakeholder pushback, logistical breakdowns, and limited technical capacity. This study explores the linkage between risk factors (regulatory policies) and the environmental sustainability of energy transition projects within Southern Nigeria. The study employed a purposive sampling technique in the distribution of 660 survey questionnaires among construction sector staff.The research targets project managers, procurement officers, contract compliance offices, and government regulators engaged in green infrastructure initiatives. The results indicate that weak regulatory policies pose significant risks to the environmental sustainability of energy transition projects. The study highlights weak regulatory enforcement and compliance as major challenges to sustainable energy transition in Nigeria’s construction industry. The findings indicate a significant association, since the p-value (.000) is less than the 5% significance criterion. The study recommends that early-stage engagement and cooperation among key project stakeholders are vital for detecting and mitigating risk factors that commonly lead to execution delays, cost escalations, and project underperformance.

Abstract: This study explores how Monte Carlo simulation and artificial intelligence (AI) tools can be applied to identify, assess, and mitigate risks in green public procurement for energy transition projects. Through a systematic literature review of recent peer-reviewed studies, the research develops a structured framework that integrates risk management into sustainable procurement. The findings emphasize the importance of auditability, adaptability to regulatory shifts, and stakeholder engagement in ensuring resilient and transparent procurement practices. By incorporating AI-based monitoring and Monte Carlo simulation, the framework enables proactive risk mitigation, greater accountability, and improved decision-making in energy transition initiatives.

Abstract: Despite privatisation, the power sector in Nigeria remains underperforming, with power outages and frequent grid failures in 2024. This research evaluates the performance of the eleven electricity distribution companies (DISCOs) of Nigeria between 2015 and 2024 with respect to electricity supply and customers' access. Quantitative analysis was used to determine the key indicators of a utility company, such as energy supplied, number of customers, energy/customer, customer to energy ratio, customer growth rates, and energy supplied growth rates, all average quarterly and annual.The study reveals poor energy supply stability, with 2024 showing a reduced energy supply for most DISCOS when compared with 2023. The 2024 average energy supplied was 1,897.008 GWh and puts total energy supplied at 20,867.088 GWh. For 2023, the average energy and total energy supplied are 2,003.782 GWh and 22,041.602 GWh, respectively. While most DISCOS showed steady and increasing growth rates, AEDC and IEDC showed a double-digit decline in customer growth rate for 2022. This highlights the poor energy distributed on an individual basis, and the excessive customer-to-energy ratio exceeding 5000 customers/GWh signifies the extreme energy poverty and poor electrification plaguing most of the country.The study shows that privatisation of the nation’s power sector has been unable to achieve its intended objectives of robust electrification, consistent power supply and improved customer access to energy. Hence, emphasising an immediate reassessment of policy and current operations to minimise technical losses and boost energy distribution supply. The study’s value is in its holistic examination of the nation’s distribution sector performance in energy supply and customer reach. The findings aim to catalyse a deliberate collection of DISCOS’ data, a more in-depth analysis of DISCOS’ performance, and a critical identification and examination of energy distribution policies.

Abstract: This paper analyzes Uganda’s electricity distribution network performance gaps and modernization challenges using Kampala West region’s Kitala feeder as a case study. Industry-standard reliability indices including System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI), System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI), Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI), modernization maturity assessment, and network simulations identified high outage durations, frequent interruptions, and significant feeder losses. Modernization interventions including protection coordination, network reconfiguration, reconductoring, parallel circuits, and distributed generation significantly improved reliability and reduced losses. Cost-benefit analysis using Net Present Value (NPV) and payback period metrics highlighted the most economically viable interventions. The study recommends targeted interventions with optimal NPV and payback period values, replicable to similar urban feeders across Sub-Saharan Africa. Policy formulation and regulations supporting comprehensive distribution network modernization are essential to achieve reliable electricity supply and supportUganda’s Vision 2040 goals.

Abstract: As the world transitions to the adoption of green energy, it is necessary for countries to harness their renewable energy sources for eco-friendly operations. This study aims at deploying an integration of green energy and other energy sources (as backup) in optimizing a 5G base station energy requirement in Rivers State, Nigeria (4^o49.0’N, 7^o 0.9’E). Three different scenarios of hybrid renewable energy sources were analyzed to ascertain which of them will yield optimal and sustainable power. The simulation and optimization were performed with the aid of the HOMER pro micro grid analytical software 3.16.2. The software engine performed intricate simulations on various components of the system and with the aid of energy data, authentication was done on the cost-competitive strategy used for component design by enabling comparison with alternative solutions. The result demonstrated that the least cost of renewable energy (CoE) was recorded in solar-wind, fuel cell and diesel generator with battery system (scenerio-2) at AC load of 884852kWh/yr, with well reduced minimum energy cost at NGN 541.2 /kWh. The most expensive configuration is the wind turbine, solar PV, fuel cell (FC) and diesel generator with absence of battery banks. The pure renewable hybrid microgrid system happens to be the option with moderately expensive configuration. The implication of the result is that the optimal system has an investment payback of 3.65 years and an IRR of 26.9%. It also shows a net present cost of NGN 6,120 M while the initial cost and operating cost are NGN 3,840 M and NGN 181,797,600 respectively. The system recorded 52.2% excess electricity and zero Kwh/yr of capacity shortage. The optimum solution minimizes overall emissions by 80% when compared to the diesel and battery bank system.

Abstract: The adoption of stand-alone hybrid energy systems (HES) has gained traction in addressing energy deficits in unserved and underserved regions. This paper elucidates the technical and financial evaluation of a hybrid energy system designed to supply power to the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Port Harcourt, tailored to meet specific load requirements. Situated at coordinates 4°54.4’N and 6°55.4’E, the case study reveals a load consumption of 400.33 kWh/day, with a peak load of 78.71 kW during operational hours. Utilizing HOMER (Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable) software version 3.14.2, five optimal configurations are systematically analyzed with respect to Net Present Cost (NPC), Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), and renewable energy fraction to ascertain the most viable option. The analysis indicates that the Diesel/Wind/PV/Biomass/Battery hybrid configuration emerges as the most efficient, yielding a power output of 180,771 kW/yr, an NPC of $725,576, and an LCOE of $0.384/kWh. This configuration achieves a notable CO₂ emission reduction of 51.6%, resulting in emissions of merely 8,000 kg/yr, alongside surplus power generation of 18,814 kWh/yr (10.4%). Furthermore, this system records a Return on Investment (ROI) of 25.3% and a Return on Revenue (ROR) of 21.7%, both of which are indicative of strong economic viability and favorable financial performance, suggesting that the investment will yield substantial returns and contribute positively to the institution's sustainability goals. This research underscores the novel renewable energy integration of biomass at the faculty level, thereby demonstrating its potential to advance sustainability initiatives within educational institutions. The comparative advantage of this optimal configuration lies in its effective amalgamation of diverse renewable energy sources, facilitating both economic feasibility and significant environmental benefits.

Abstract: The limited adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy within Ghana’s private sector presents a barrier to the broader implementation of renewable energy technologies. This challenge is driven by insufficient empirical data on the operational performance and economic benefits of solar PV systems to inform business investment decisions. This study bridges this gap through a techno-economic assessment of two small scale grid-tied solar PV systems installed for a hotel and a financial institution. Solar energy production data from January to December 2023, combined with PVSyst software simulations and a spreadsheet model, were used to evaluate the technical performance and financial viability of the systems. The hotel’s solar with a capacity of 38.22 kWp delivered an annual energy output of 45,880 kWh, a specific yield of 1,200 kWh/kWp/year, a performance ratio of 62%, a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 0.065 USD/kWh, and a payback period of 6.55 years. In comparison, the financial institution’s system which has a capacity of 20.68 kWp generated 13,720 kWh annually, with a yield of 663 kWh/kWp/year, a performance ratio of 34%, an LCOE of 0.12 USD/kWh, and a payback period of 13.53 years. Simulating the integration of battery storage for the financial institution solar improved the technical performance raising annual generation to 21,213 KWh, yield to 1,025 kWh/kWp/year, and performance ratio to 52%. However, this increased the LCOE to 0.14 USD/kWh and extended the payback period to 15 years. Further analysis of net metering integration showed enhanced performance and more favorable financial outcomes for both systems. By analyzing real operational data of existing solar systems and exploring optimization options across two different private sector organizations, this study provides practical insights into the interventions required to encourage the adoption of solar PV energy by private enterprises in Ghana.

Abstract: The Sustainable Development Goal, SDG No. 3 of the UN, is to develop healthcare for all. Nigeria's healthcare policy is to make primary healthcare the bedrock of the national healthcare system. A dearth of access to electricity is the most critical impediment to quality healthcare delivery in Nigeria. Fragile and inadequate capacity has bedevilled the national grid, making connection to the grid either impossible or ineffective. Out of the over 34,000 Primary Healthcare Centres in the country, 40% lack access to any form of electricity. Renewables are being used to meet the electricity demand in rural and isolated communities. The present study investigates wind and solar renewable energy resources in Abuja with a view to generating electricity that will be sufficient to power a typical rural healthcare centre, while the excess renewable energy is used for hydrogen production that will later be used to power the healthcare centre when the renewable resources are unavailable or inadequate. A wind energy conversion system, solar PV, and electrolyser-hydrogen tank-fuel cell configuration were designed to meet the electrical load at the primary healthcare centre. In situ and satellite-based meteorological data were assessed. Weibull and Logistic distributions were used to assess resource availability. Homer Pro was used for the design of the off-grid system. The Levelized Cost of Energy and Net Present Cost of Energy were found to be $2.53 and $134,123, respectively. The system was able to meet all the load requirements for the 25 years, with an annual excess electricity is 3,179kWh and 2.02kWh of unmet load and a capacity shortage of 4.08kWh.