Reliability Estimation of Buried Pipeline Using FORM, SORM and Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract:

In this paper, the failure probability is estimated by using the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the reliability of the corroded pipeline. It is found that the FORM technique is more effective in estimating the failure probability than the SORM technique for B31G and MB31G models with three different corrosion models. Furthermore, it is noted that the difference between the results of the FORM, the SORM and the Monte Carlo simulation decreases with the increase of the exposure time.

• Periodical: Key Engineering Materials (Volumes 326-328)
• Pages: 597-600
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/KEM.326-328.597
• Online since: December 2006
• Authors: Ouk Sub Lee, Dong Hyeok Kim
• Keywords: Corrosion, Corrosion Model, Failure Pressure Model, Failure Probability, Form, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Pipeline, Reliability, SORM

References

[1] M. Ahammed: Int. Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, Vol. 75 (1998), p.321~329.

[2] F. Caleyo, J.L. Gonzalez and J.M. Hallen: Int. Journal of Pressure Vessels and piping, Vol. 79(2002), p.77�86.

[3] O.S. Lee and D.H. Kim: Solid State Phenomena, Vol. 110(2006), p.221~230.

[4] L. Cizelj, B. Mavko and H.O. Riesch: Nuclear Eng. and Design, Vol. 147(1994), p.359~368.

[5] S. Mahadevan and A. Haldar: Probability, Reliability and Statistical Method in Engineering Design (John Wiley & Sons 2000).