Applied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 522-524

Abstract: In order to understand the fire-fighting capability of rural villagers, a part of villagers in North China are taken as examples and more than 100 villagers are sampled as a sample. The statistic is done using the method of recycling questionnaire survey on the spot. The data is then analyzed using the Chinese version Excel2003 and SPSS17.0. The results show that the villagers neither grasp well the legal knowledge of fire-fighting nor skillfully use fire extinguishers, and more than 50% of the villagers do not know Fire Awareness Day, even the ones with college degrees. The formula of rural villagers fire-fighting capacity is initially proposed. The rural villagers fire-fighting capacity is calculated using the proposed formula to calculate in North China, and the result is 69.76, which indicates the capacity belongs to the middle level and need to improve the villagers fire-fighting ability through a variety of ways and means.

Abstract: Three original forecast methods such as exponential prediction, hyperbola prediction and grey prediction were combined to propose a new method to improve the forecast accuracy of gas emission in coalmines considering three factors of those methods, which are stability, data utilization and appropriate time interval. The combination weights were determined by Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). By using the combination forecast method to predict the gas emission of a coalmine in northwest of China as an example, the results appeared that this new method had a better accuracy and easy operation, comparing with the results of three original forecast methods. The method had a positive direct significance to gas emission prediction.

Abstract: A safety evaluation index system regarding to the current safety situation of large recreation facilities in China is established. 13 secondary standard items are built by considerring human factor, equipment factor, environment factor and management factor. The existing safety evaluation of large recreation facilities are conducted by qualitative evaluation methods with highly fuzziness. The evaluation results are uncertain. After the network training, a safety evaluation model based on BP neural network is built. It can reduce the subjectivity of qualitative evaluation effectively with more scientific and objective results. Through the model based on BP neural network, the present safety situation of one large amusement facility is evaluated. The evaluation result is consistent with the actual situation. The method based on BP neural network in the paper provides a new method for safety evaluation of large recreation facilities.

Abstract: The paper studies risk behavior and capital buffers of Chinas commercial banks under capital regulatory whose core is capital adequacy ratio. We find that the regulatory pressure doesnt significantly affect the risk behavior of commercial banks. It doesnt affect the capital adjustment of commercial banks which have already violated regulatory capital requirement. Whereas, commercial bank which doesnt violate the regulatory requirement but approaching the threshold, will react to this pressure by fine-tuning of supplementary capital to increase its capital adequacy ratio.

Abstract: In view of the difficulty in giving a quantitative description of the degree of uneven distribution of water resources, this paper, based on a cloud model, explores the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in some research areas in Guangdong Province by using quantitative methods. The results show that, firstly, cloud images of a cloud model make it possible to describe intuitively the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources and present the differences of these characteristics in different areas through numerical characteristic values. Secondly, there are the least amounts of water resources in western Guangdong and the most in the Pearl River Delta Area. Temporal allocation of water resources is difficult in the northern and eastern parts of this province while spatial allocation difficult in the eastern and western parts. Thirdly, there are more water resources, less non-uniformity in the temporal distribution, greater stability in terms of temporal and spatial distribution but greater non-uniformity in the spatial distribution of water resources in the downstream than upstream of the Pearl River in Guangdong Province. Fourthly, there is less non-uniformity in the spatial distribution than in the temporal distribution in northern Guangdong while stability of spatial distribution is worse than that of the temporal distribution in western Guangdong. In addition, there is less uniformity but greater stability in the spatial distribution than in the temporal distribution of water resources in each research area.

Abstract: Tarim basin,which located in north-west of China, is a very important zone both on ecology and economy. How much discharge could it produce has significant importance to the residents' life and the progress of this region. Beside of rainfall, the glaciers that existed plentifully in the upstreams have a great role in this basin which due to the very quantity of snow-melt. In this study, we choose Akesu river that belongs to this basin to be object. The WASMOD hydrologic model used in this program has both snow-melt and rainfall modules with eight sub-models. This article probed into different sub models applicabilities to Akesu river and came to a conclusion of which sub model was best suitable to it. On the basis of optimum model which calibrated by data from 1978-1987 monthly precipitation, evaporation, fast speed flow and base flow, we simulated real evaporation, slow flow, fast flow and total volume of runoff around 2001-2004.The result showed a good applicability of WASMOD in Tarim Basin.

Abstract: We analyzed the relationship between the national flood disaster area, drought disaster area , total disaster area and per capita GDP from 1970-2011 in this study, which use the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and regression analysis model. The study showed that drought disaster area and per capita GDP showed a typical "U" shaped of Kuznets curve, flood disaster area and per capita GDP showed "inverted U + U" typed of Kuznets curve. From China's current economic situation, flood is an important factor to affect Chinas economic development, especially the regional economic development. Thinking about how to implement stromwater resource reuse from a strategic perspective is an important issue of land resource utilization and regional economic development. So we propose a strategic concept based on the empirical analysis.

Abstract: Current progress of water accounting was reviewed systematically in the paper. The result of water accounting is outstanding in some countries abroad, like Australia, South Africa, and European Union (EU) countries. In China, the exploratory research appeared in the 1990s. The study showed that theoretical framework of water resource accounting is basically formed, and research on physical accounting of water resources is abundant. However, some aspects, such as estimate of value, compilation of water economy accounts, and coupling between water resources accounting and national economic accounting system need improvement, which can provide methodological support for the water accounting system and valuable reference for integrated environmental economic accounting system (SEEA).

Abstract: Jidong Iron Ore lies in the Baimiaozi Series of Dantazi Group, Archaeozoic erathem. With a resource of 2,501.16 million tons and an average grade of over 30%, it is an important iron base of China. The mining area is located at the middle-upper part of alluvial-proluvial fan of the Luanhe River. The ore body is covered with Quaternary gravels and pebbles, in which the aquifer has a large water capacity and is rich in water; therefore it is a water ore deposit and there is great difficulty in sewer drainage of the ore deposit. Besides, sewer drainage may damage underground water environment and incur some environmental problems including land subsidence. In this article, based on the analysis of hydrogeologic condition of the mining area, put forward a hydrogeological concept model of the multilayer aquifer system in which the hydraulic affiliation is quite strong, establish a numerical simulation model describing multilayer aquifer system to predict the evolvement of groundwater flow field due to the mining, then evaluate the influence of mining on the regional groundwater environment, and finally, propose some environmental protection measures. All of the above is of great significance in the method of assessing the influence on the groundwater environment, exploitation of the groundwater resources and environmental protection management during the mine exploitation.

Abstract: The relation was studied between the meteorological parameters in Ireland and the precipitation of UK by rainfall ratio Ro method. It was found that the surface temperature in Ireland had significant relation with the rainfall of UK. After discussing the pitfalls of Ro method that Ro could vary by a variance in the numerator or the denominator, and discussing whether variance of Ro was caused by the parameter in Ireland or the same parameter in UK, quantitative study showed that for each adding 1°C of the monthly surface temperature in Ireland, the monthly precipitation at 59 percent stations in UK would decrease by 3.8-12.1%.