Advanced Materials Research Vols. 1073-1076

Abstract: The following article presents a methodology for developing processes concerned with modeling human evacuation and spread of hazardous factors in a fire. This methodology is utilized during evacuation exits norming in buildings and other structures.

Abstract: Earthquake is common but one of the major natural disasters that cause heavy casualties in the world. In China, half of the deaths caused by natural disasters were brought by earthquakes since 1950. Undertaking effective relief operations when an earthquake strikes is important not only for life saving but also for the sustainable development of the affected area. Estimation of seismic mortality is an important part of relief operation. Based on the analysis of existing seismic mortality estimation models, the paper compares three empirical models of estimating the deaths caused by four earthquakes in China, discovers large errors in the models, and proposes that the models should be improved to meet the needs of emergency rescue. The paper also discusses factors that affect model precision and makes some suggestions on how to improve these empirical models.

Abstract: Improve the prediction accuracy of fire situation reasonably has great significance for fire prevention and fire deployment. Firstly, build a fire situation prediction model by using support vector regression; followed adopt genetic algorithm to select the optimal combination of parameters; finally provide empirical analysis by taking Chinese Zhejiang Province, test reliability and practicality of model. The results showed that: the fire prediction model based on support vector machine has ideal learning ability and generalization ability; the predicted results possess a high precision, thus providing the new idea and method for predicting fire situation.

Abstract: Based on field surveys the geological condition was obtained on the Kangjia landslide that occurred in China’s Wenxian County. The dynamic motion of the landslide was analysised and simulated using the DAN-W software. The impact of numerical simulation of landslides was considered in terms of their erosion effects and rheological characteristics. It is found that the landslide deposit forms were similar despite different erosion depths and stacking thickness along when the erosion depth increased and the running time decreased. The maximum movement distance was estimated at 193.92 m using a frictional–Voellmy model. The maximum thickness was 7.6 m, the maximum velocity of the leading edge was 24.5 m/s, and the longest movement time was 19 s. The most suitable rheological parameters to simulate this landslide were a friction angle φ of 37°, a friction coefficient μ of 0.16, and a turbulence coefficient ξ of 800 m/s².

Abstract: Numerical prediction can analyze the cause and process of the accident comprehensively with the application of mathematical models. The computed results are more reliable and intuitive compared with the qualitative analysis results. Therefore, based on the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the related theory of safety system science, leak and diffusion processes of high pressure liquid oxygen in spherical tank area, and the subsequent potential oxygen poisoning was analyzed by accident consequence assessment method. The given poisoning area and damage situation provide a reference for the safety analysis of oxygen storage and transportation.

Abstract: Using the daily precipitation and disaster census data of 76 metrological stations in Hubei province from 1960 to 2005, the authors studied the temporal-spatial distributions and disastrous laws of flood. The results show that the frequent occurrence area of flood mainly occurred along the river, with the high value center in Tongshan, Chibi and Chongyang. The average annual occurrences of flood disaster showed three different tendency periods from 1960 to 2005, with a decrease of stations of flood after 1996. The flood disaster mainly concentrated in summer. The overall variation trend of flood disaster-causing intensity is quasi periodic oscillation. Both of the damaged areas of agriculture crops and agricultural economic losses reached maximum values in the 1990s, and with a correlation coefficient of 0.80 between the two variables. There was good relationship between the flood-affected population and direct economic losses. The increasing speed of direct economic losses was accelerated with the growth of flood-affected population, while the abilities to prevent flood disaster were also strengthened.

Abstract: Through the key industries identification process, this study identified seven of key industries in Liao River basin, to evaluate the cleaner production potential of industries in the basin. The results indicated that, without the adverse impact on the economic growth, by 2020, under the high cost cleaner production solution, COD and NH₃-N production would be 17.02% and 19.17% less than that of 2012, so that industrial emissions of major pollutants in the basin could be 15% less in comparison with that in 2012, as long as the end-of-pipe treatment ratio maintains the level in 2012.

Abstract: The Cropping System Model (CMS) simulates growth, development and yield of a crop growing on a uniform area of land under prescribed or simulated management as well as the changes in soil water, carbon, and nitrogen that take place under the cropping system over time. Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer DSSAT is one of many cropping system models and has been relatively widely applied. In this paper, the development history, the system structure, and the application field of the model system are summarized, and the principle and mechanism of the model to simulate the soil-water balance in the study of water resources management and the representative study results obtained by the scholars in China are analyzed in detail, so as to provide references for relevant studies and applications.

Abstract: Solute transport through riparian zone was studied experimentally and numerically with the consideration of silt layer. The silt layer had markable change on flow field and lead to a significant variation of the breakthrough curves (BTCs). BTCs of solute tracer tests show non-Fickian features as early arrival of peak value and long tailings. BTCs were fitted by advection dispersion equation (ADE), mobile and immobile model (MIM) and the continuous time random walk (CTRW) models. MIM and CTRW can fit BTCs better than ADE and MIM fit better on the capture of the peak value and CTRW fit better in description of the long tailing.

Abstract: Affected by the climate change and human activities, the consistency of Measured Runoff Series (MRS) is changing. The methods of reduction modification and current modification are commonly used to the inconsistent MRS in domestic, the modified runoff series will be used to water resources assessment as the basic data, but the methods that used to estimate the consistency of Reduction Runoff Series (RRS) and Current Runoff Series (CRS) is subjective to some extent. With the MRS/RRS/CRS from 1956 to 2000 of Huayuankou Station at Yellow River, the influence degree of human activities and climate change to the inconsistency of runoff series were analyzed preliminarily, then the hydrological alteration diagnosis system was used to estimate the consistency of runoff series, with the parameters of Hurst coefficient and the alteration classification, the modification effect of RRS/CRS was analyzed. The results show that, although the consistency of RRS/CRS was improved, the alteration still existed, they should be modified further more to satisfied the requirement of water resources assessment, or the assessment method that adjust to the inconsistent runoff series should be adopted.