Applied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 672-674

Abstract: Using data from 2007 to 2011 as the sample, on the base of analyzing the power consumption overall situation of Sichuan Province, the effects of Sichuan electric consumption, energy consumption characteristics factors, increase the proportion of the reasons were studied. The research results to improve the operation quality and efficiency of management, further develop the electric power market has a certain reference value.

Abstract: Based on the statistical data of US from the year 1977 to 2006, this paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-term fluctuations among power grid investment, economy and electricity consumption by employing the recently developed VAR model and cointegration theory. The results show that the electricity consumption has a positive effect on power grid investment while GDP has a negative impact. The development of electric power grid investment can be divided into three stages. To achieve the coordinate development of electricity and economy, the electric power industrial should develop in advance and try to be a new pillar industry.

Abstract: Principal component analysis is performed on the operation and management evaluation of smart distribution network because of its objectivity, synthesis and simplification to original data information. According to the demand on the evaluation that focuses on intellectualization and reliability of distribution network, an index system for intelligent and reliable evaluation is built. The performance indicators and the principal component analysis are used to analyze the intelligent and reliable level of distribution network operation and management. The feasibility of the evaluation index system is verified by the evaluation results of some distribution networks.

Abstract: Power load forecasting is one of the important parts in power system planning. This paper focused on the research of load forecasting and proposed an improved Rough set for mid-long term load forecasting. Based on the theory, the most sensitive factor can be found, which is applied to studying the uncertain problems of mid-long term load forecasting in this paper and one method fitting for mid-long term load forecasting are proposed. The validity and effectiveness of the method is tested in a real power system example.

Abstract: Basing on the Monte Carlo, this paper established a strategy planning model for international business strategic of power grid enterprise, by which estimating the possibility and sensitivity of a power grid enterprise.

Abstract: This paper presents selected similar days of short-term power load forecasting model based on fuzzy clustering, the method first meteorological factors subdivided into temperature, barometric pressure, wind speed, rain, etc., and then type the week, date, type of day together constitute similar factors, fuzzy coefficient feature mapping table through fuzzy rules, not only to achieve quantitative impact factors and facilitate real-time to add a new rule. On this basis, the use of fuzzy clustering method for classification, based on the level of clustering similar day is selected to reduce the number of samples to accelerate the selected speed. The model takes into account the full impact of weather and other factors on load forecasting, further weakening the load of randomness. Simulation results show that the method has higher prediction accuracy.

Abstract: A new method for data validation of thermal process in power plant was proposed based on multi-kernel relevance vector machine (MKRVM). Hybrid kernel function combining Gaussian kernel and polynomial kernel function was applied to relevance vector machine (RVM). After optimizing kernel parameters with firefly algorithm, nonlinear data regression model was built for thermal system. Then we used measuring test method to detect data and reconstruct data with model prediction. This method can overcome multiple correlation and nonlinearity among variables of thermal system. It has good robustness against various types of noise and higher accuracy for prediction compared with SVM and RVM. The results of case analysis for thermal system in a 600 MW unit show this method can detect and reconstruct data effectively.

Abstract: Power grid crisis happening at home and abroad warns the necessity of carry out power grid crisis management. Power-grid crisis management game is a zero sum game between power grid crisis manager and crisis event. Power-grid crisis game belongs to the “dynamic game of incomplete information”-“dynamic Bayesian game”. Dynamic Bayesian game process is just analogous to the process of crisis management of power grid, which fully demonstrates that the process of power-grid crisis management is a course of repeated game between crisis manager and power-crisis, also a constantly optimized process. This article mainly studies: the specific characteristics of dynamic Bayesian game of grid crisis management; the Dynamic game model of power grid crisis management; the calculation of refined Bayesian equilibrium principles.

Abstract: Power grid crises at home and abroad happened frequently, insufficient research on power grid crisis management and awareness of “crisis and crisis management” warns the necessity and urgency of power grid crises management. Necessity of finding rational theoretical basis for our studying crisis and carrying out crisis management are becoming urgent. This article proposes the theoretical basis from three aspects: stage-division theory, system theory and structure theory. Stage-division of power grid crisis management can be adopted according to practical study. The outstanding performances of all components of crisis management embody the safe and stable operation of power system. Fragmentation of thinking way in power grid crisis management will hamper the crisis management, and we should establish “systems thinking”- “to see the whole”.

Abstract: Infrared thermography was obtained more attention and accepted as an effective method in electrical preventive maintenance in account of high precision and sensitivity image features. This review elaborates the application of infrared thermography for diagnosing electrical equipment, both of the thermal anomalies and methods of measurement. Developments of the inspection techniques are remarkable for purpose of investigate the reliability of electrical equipments due to the effect of the environmental factors and equipment condition. Due to the complex analysis, various automatic diagnostic systems are proposed for faster and more accurate detection. Recent technologies of typical engineering solutions are introduced to raise the level of infrared thermography inspection.