Advanced Materials Research Vols. 989-994

Abstract: This paper analyzes inflation forecast based on BP neural network model. Firstly, it reviews some references about BP neural network and finds that it is a nonlinear adaptive data-driven model with induction ability and a wide range of function approximation ability so that BP neural network could be applied into forecast research. Secondly, it builds up the BP neural network model to predict CPI, selecting the four indicators, which are excess liquidity, exchange rates, inflation expectation and macro-economic leading index. Then it carries out empirical experiment and takes advantage of the monthly data of the above four indicators from March 2005 to December 2012 to forecast CPI. The results show that when prediction period is 3 months, the maximum absolute error between forecast value and real value is 0.0139, and the minimum absolute error is 0.0005. When prediction period is 6 months, the maximum absolute error is not more than 0.02. It proves that BP neural network model can predict coming CPI trend at least 6 months according to the existing data and it means it is suitable for the study of inflation forecast.

Abstract: China is in a critical period of urbanization, and various social contradictions continue to be accumulated, emerged and enlarged, so public crisis management mechanism has been highly valued by governments at all levels with the public crisis events are occurred frequently. The paper conducts study for the problems in the current urban public crisis handle mechanism. First, the evaluation model of crisis management can be researched, and crisis management can be divided into four stages to evaluate respectively, they are Reduction, Readiness, Response and Recovery; then, we should research crisis prediction model to strengthen prediction, prevention and monitoring of the crisis before the crisis happened; finally, stakeholders analysis model should be studied, and scientific analyzing the interests of the various stakeholders and the relationship among them. From the theoretical point of view, the paper carries on a study for crisis handle mechanism to provide support for improving the crisis handle level.

Abstract: Currently, missile and artillery air defense system under the conditions of the network has become a very important air defense weapon system, and play an unprecedented role in modern warfare process. To develop high damage performance missile and artillery air defense system has become common goal. It is necessary to study the impact of missile and artillery air defense system damage performance for improving damage probability of missile and artillery air defense system.

Abstract: Considering the uncertainty of waste products recovery quantity in consumption areas, a fuzzy optimization model for manufacturing/remanufacturing integrated logistics network with capacity constraints was constructed to determine the number and location of the facilities, the flows between each facility. A numerical example was provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the model.

Abstract: In order to explore the growth mechanism of crop, further improve the level of crop growth management, the simulation research technology for management model of the crop growth is proposed, meanwhile ontology and visual model technology are used in the establishment process of crop growth model, so all kinds of states of crop growth at different stages can be predicted, then efficiency of crop growth management is greatly improved. The research on the crop growth model has important theory and practical significance in understanding the yield of the various parts of the crop, and help the manager understand the growth discipline of crop.

Abstract: Logistics center address selection is logistics system of strategic investment decision-making problem, the whole site whether reasonable logistic system has important implications. According to the principle of modern logistics center location affect the location of the factor analysis, through the system of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of center location mathematical model, and taking a regional logistics center location for example was introduced in detail.

Abstract: According to the deficient situation of study in merging unit performance evaluation, this paper set up a comprehensive evaluation model for merging unit performance evaluation. Introduced triangular fuzzy number and determined the index weight through certain processing conversion, and set up a scientific system of performance indicators, and then selected normal distribution as the membership function. On this basis, this paper established a hierarchical and sub-aims comprehensive evaluation model. Finally, the model was applied for evaluating a merging unit performance. The evaluation result showed that the weight was effective and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was simple and reliable.

Abstract: Overpass is an important hub for urban road network facility, its traffic capacity severely restricts that of the entire road network. Since overpass area is easy to gather water in urban road network, rain water under the overpass is an important incentive for traffic jams. In this paper, a reliable and easily maintainable method is discussed to detect the depth of the road surface water, which designs and implements a monitoring system of urban road network ponding depth. Based on this, technique of predicting travel time has been researched about overpass area under water-logging condition. Through a real example, the technique discussed in this paper has been proved to be highly effective and veracious, and can be used to provide basic data for traffic guidance to plan out sound routes.

Abstract: Information technology has been greatly developed in recent years and brings opportunities as well as challenges for engineering courses. This paper surveys the development and characteristics of information technology. Then different methods of information technology are analyzed and applied. The new teaching mode based on information technology – blending teaching as well as detailed teaching case is proposed in the course of Engineering Thermodynamics.

Abstract: In 1981~2012, the general urban wastewater in Shanghai was between 1.775~2.420 billion tons. Among the urban wastewater, the industrial wastewater emissions before 1988 was more than 1.4 billion tons, then, it was declining to about 649 million tons at 2002, a low value in the past 30 years, less than 50% of the 1980s. The percentage of industrial wastewater in the total urban wastewater discharge is falling from 76.9% in 1981 to under 30% in recent years. The living wastewater emissions increased from 424 million tons in 1981 to 1.697 billion tons in 2012. There is a relationship between the living wastewater increasing and the increase of the permanent residents in Shanghai. At the same time, the living wastewater emissions per capita per day were significantly increased from 100 kg (liter) around 1980s to around 190 kg (liter) in recent years. From 1995, the treatment and management of urban wastewater was continuing to intensify in Shanghai. The ratio of wastewater treating has increasing from 6.35% in 1995 to 85.62% of the total urban wastewater in 2012. Comparing the social-economic development and management of wastewater discharge in Shanghai, it can be seen, the wastewater emissions increasing amplitude was far less than the sizes of population growth and economic growth in the past 30 years